One of the UK's most senior medics has said transmission of coronavirus is likely to be happening already and warned "a wave is almost certainly coming". 

 

Chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty also warned there could be a need to do "extreme things" to protect the elderly and those with pre-existing health conditions, including keeping them away from infected people.

But Prof Whitty said closing down cities was "unlikely" in the UK and he believed there was now onward transmission between infected people, although only two UK cases of that nature have been identified so far.

He said: "For the great majority of people this will be a mild or moderate disease, anything from a sniffle to having to go to bed for a few days rather like with with mild flu.

"And there are some people who will get it with no symptoms at all but for a minority of people - and this is particular in people who are older people or people with pre-existing health conditions - the risk is higher.

"The NHS will always cope because the NHS is an emergency service which is very good at adapting to what it finds itself with.

"If this turns into a very large epidemic, then it will put very high pressure on the NHS and that's one of the reasons we have a very clear strategy made up of four parts... to contain this virus, but if it can't be contained to delay it into the summer months or late spring when it is easier for the NHS to cope with it, to do the research needed to have the best treatments available and then to mitigate it - mitigate means to get the NHS and wider society ready for several weeks which could be very difficult."

He said a small wave could "feel like rather a bad winter in the NHS" but pushed into summer or late spring.

 

The expert added: "If we get a much larger wave then the first thing we would do is to cancel those things that can be delayed, push them out to a later point when it's safer to do them, and then if it gets to a very large wave, then we would need to reconfigure the NHS in a much more fundamental way.

"A wave is almost certainly coming but we do not know the size."

He said the NHS would look to retired doctors for help and "getting doctors doing one kind of a job doing another kind of a job" to relieve pressure.

In the case of a significant epidemic, ministers would need to look at a range of measures, "some of which will be very socially disruptive".

Such steps should not be taken too early "but if we're close to the epidemic we will need to do a lot of things to help reduce the pressure."

He added: "In the longer run, we might have to do more extreme things particularly to protect older or more vulnerable people in society."

This could include measures to ensure they do not come "into contact with people who might have the virus".

On cities, he said: "Closing cities is really only appropriate if you have a significant epidemic in one particular place and almost nowhere else.

"It made sense for China to respond in the way it did but it would be very unlikely here. This is now in multiple places around the world."

Prof Whitty said "video conference consultations" should be looked at "very seriously" to relieve pressure on the NHS if the virus spreads more widely.

"The next stage out would be... cancelling or more accurately postponing elective things - that's things which actually we can do later. Not ideal for the individuals but a lot better than coming into a system which is incredibly overstretched.

"But obviously we might have to go to more radical measures than that - and that's why things like video conference consultations and other issues like that we should look at very seriously."

Prof Whitty said it was "likely" but not definite that the spread of the coronavirus would become an epidemic in the UK.

"At this point in time we think it is likely, not definite, that we will move into onward transmission and an epidemic here in the UK," he said.

Meanwhile another person has tested positive for the virus in the Uk.

A spokesman for the North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust said: "The trust can confirm that a member of hospital staff has tested presumptive positive for Covid-19 following a trip to northern Italy.

"On returning from the trip, the member of staff sensibly self-isolated and did not come into work or have any contact with patients.

"We can assure the public that the risk remains low. The trust is operating normally and there is no need to cancel any appointments."